From trend spotting to trend setting: Modeling the impact of major technological and infrastructural changes in travel demand
PI: J. Walker, UC Berkeley
Abstract: Major technological and infrastructural changes over the next several decades, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles and the implementation of mileage-based fees, are expected to have a profound impact on lifestyles, modality styles and travel behavior. Travel demand models currently in practice are not equipped to predict long-range trends in travel behavior, such as the recently observed saturation in car use (peak auto). Studies in the past that have examined trends in travel behavior have done so retrospectively, and a framework for predicting future trends remains lacking. We propose integrating models of technology adoption with models of travel demand in an attempt to develop a dynamic framework of disaggregate decision-making that can be used to understand and predict long-range trends in travel behavior, and offer insights to planners and policy-makers on what can be done to influence possible outcomes. The framework will be estimated and evaluated using longitudinal travel diary datasets from Santiago, Chile and the Puget Sound Region, United States.
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